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08/18/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Currently tied for first place in the Eastern Division, the Toronto Argonauts try to continue their recent run of success as they face off against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a divisional showdown at the Rogers Center on Friday night.
Toronto is the surprise team in the league to this point in the season, putting up five wins in seven tries and taking all three of its home games in 2010. The squad remained perfect at home by knocking off Montreal in this same building last weekend by a final of 37-22, exacting revenge for a disappointing 41-10 setback at the Alouettes just a few weeks ago.
Cleo Lemon attempted just 19 passes on the night versus the Als the last time out, completing 13, yet he still accumulated 269 yards and logged three touchdowns in the victory, while Cory Boyd tacked on a game-high 63 rushing yards and a major of his own on 17 attempts coming out of the backfield for the squad.
Chad Owens put together a monster effort with his six catches for 163 yards and two scores and was consequently named the CFL's Offensive Player of the Week on Tuesday after rolling up 291 yards of total offense in the meeting. A unanimous selection for the weekly honor, Owens now leads the CFL in combined yards after seven weeks with 1,197 yards.
Another high point of the game for Toronto was kick returner Ryan Christian who, when the Als decided to kick away from Owens in the second quarter, collected a kick at his own goal line and then proceeded to race 110 yards for a touchdown, breaking the club's all-time record for longest kickoff return, surpassing the 109-yard effort by Terry Greer in 1981.
But not all the news was good for the Argos last weekend as Jeremaine Copeland went out with an injury that was later determined to be a dislocated left elbow and could have the wideout on the sidelines for as long as six weeks, following the results of an MRI taken on Monday.
As for the Tiger-Cats, they picked up their second win in as many games last Friday night when they topped Winnipeg on the road by a score of 39-28. It was the fourth matchup in the first seven games between the two clubs, with the Ti-Cats winning their third decision of the season versus the Blue Bombers.
Quarterback Kevin Glenn threw three touchdown passes in the first half, converting 18-of-26 passes for 274 yards, while working through a couple of interceptions to lead his team on to victory. Receiver Arland Bruce III, who had posted a couple of impressive efforts in the two weeks prior, tallied two catches for 64 yards and a score in the win.
While running back DeAndra Cobb registered both a rushing touchdown and a receiving score for the visitors, the bigger story for the Tiger-Cats was Marcus Thigpen who scored on a five-yard run on the first drive of the contest. While the run itself wasn't all that impressive, the scoring play represented the fifth different way (kickoff return, punt return, missed field goal return, pass reception) in which Thigpen has registered a major this year, becoming the first player in CFL history to achieve the feat in a single campaign and doing so in less than half a season.
From a defensive standpoint, tackle Matt Kirk made his presence known against Winnipeg by coming up with his first two sacks of the season, a performance worthy of being named the CFL's Canadian Player of the Week.
Thigpen enters this week ranked third in the league in combined yards with 1,016, one of only three players in the CFL to have already eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. Adding to Hamilton's attack is Bruce III who is easily the league leader in receiving yards with 744 and has five touchdowns on 45 receptions thus far. It also helps that Dave Stala has posted 34 catches for 398 yards and two touchdowns and Marquay McDaniel has reeled in 33 passes for 435 yards and a couple of scores in order to give defenses something else to thing about as they arrange their pass coverages versus Hamilton.
Glenn has one of the best efficiency ratings (102.2) in the league after seven games, thanks to throwing 14 TDs and having tossed just six picks on 244 attempts. His yardage total of 2,164 yards, thanks in large part to the big- play ability of Bruce III, is third in the league at the moment.
Lemon started off the 2010 campaign rather quietly for the Argos, learning the ropes as he went along in this his first CFL season, but he has come on of late and has now completed 60.7 percent of his passes and is finally getting his squad into the end zone on a consistent basis. But Lemon's success hinges greatly on Boyd who is first in the league in yards from scrimmage with 785 after seven games. In his first professional season in the Great White North, Boyd has provided a huge spark for the team in most of their outings, gaining at least 100 yards in four of seven contests and averaging 6.1 yards per carry as he ranks first in the league in rushing with 711 yards on 117 attempts.
As well as the Toronto offense has performed thus far, there has to be some concern for an Argos defense that is ranked last in the league with a whopping 451.1 yards per game allowed. Granted, the team has had to face Anthony Calvillo and the Montreal Alouettes a few times, but still the numbers look rather daunting on that side of the ball and tell the story of a team that is bound to crack sooner rather than later. Yet, as bad as the yardage numbers might be for the Argos, the fact remains that the team is in the middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed (28.4 ppg) and Hamilton is actually further down the list with 29.0 ppg. Some of that has to do with the fact that Toronto's pass coverage has tied Calgary for the league lead in interceptions with nine, while the Tiger-Cats are last on that chart with just four.
In terms of the all-time series between the clubs, Hamilton is ahead by a count of 117-86-2, dating back to the 1950 campaign. The Tiger-Cats won the most recent meeting last year, 26-17, in Toronto, giving them two victories in the last three encounters. Following a bye next week, the teams are set to face each other again on September 6 in Hamilton, and will also be back at the Rogers Centre in the middle of October to complete their season series.
<< Yankees resume series with Tigers in the Bronx
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees will once again be without star third
baseman Alex Rodriguez this evening when they continue their four-game series
against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez left Monday's tilt with
<< Eli Manning back on the field with Giants on Wed.
ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -Eli Manning is back on the field.The New York Giants quarterback joined teammates for stretching on Wednesday morning at training camp at the University at Albany.Manning, who needed 12 stitches to close a gash on the left side of
<< Hurricanes' Thomas granted extra year
Coral Gables, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami-Florida forward Adrian Thomas was
given an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA after injuries cost him nearly
two full seasons.
Thomas suffered back-to-back season-ending injuries four gam
<< Kershaw pitches Dodgers past Rockies
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clayton Kershaw pitched seven scoreless
innings to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 6-0 win over the Colorado Rockies
in the opener of a three-game series.
Kershaw (11-7) allowed five hits and recorde
Padres aim to keep rolling in matinee vs. Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Continued dominance on the mound has given the San Diego
Padres their largest division lead of the season.
Clayton Richard will try to keep that momentum going and win a fourth straight
decision for the second time this ye
Red Sox go for ninth straight win over Angels >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox try to beat the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim for the ninth straight time this evening when the two teams continue
their three-game set at Fenway Park.
Boston continued its recent mastery of the
Phils put streak on line in second showdown with Giants >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies are certainly capable of winning
a fourth straight National League East title, but getting into the playoffs is
the ultimate goal.
Now a game up on the San Francisco Giants for the NL Wild Card po
Rays aim for sweep of Rangers at the Trop >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays go after their fifth straight win this
afternoon when they try to complete a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers at
Tropicana Field.
After rallying for a 6-4 win in Monday's opener, the Rays cruised
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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