In the FCS Huddle: Top recruits not necessarily at top schools

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/02/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ever get one of those do-not-open-until- the-holidays packages in the mail?

Well, let's just say we will need to revisit this column in about three years.

That's because recruiting analysis is so fickle - an educated, five-foot throw at the dartboard, but a throw nonetheless.

We'll see where Wednesday's national signing day takes us with this year's incoming FCS freshmen, but the top recruits may not be headed where you think.

Oh sure, Montana State might have signed the best incoming quarterback in Dakota Pruko out of Texas (this storyline has worked for the Bobcats before), or maybe it was Floridian Vegas Harley's commitment to Georgia Southern on signing day.

But the main national recruiting sites - ESPN, Rivals and Scout - say the top incoming freshman is going to South Carolina State.

Yes, a MEAC school.

Indeed, the grades and rankings are highest for 6-foot-6, 290-pound offensive tackle Javarius Leamon, who stayed in-state and gave a commitment to South Carolina State over Clemson on national signing day. The big talent out of Woodruff High is the biggest signee for the conference in a long time.

Leamon shares the top grade from ESPN with a player who didn't even sign a national letter of intent. Well, the Ivy League doesn't have such agreements, and, yes, Penn has a verbal commitment from Los Angeles Beverly Hills wide receiver Cameron Countryman, who ESPN ranks alongside Leamon with 79 scores each.

Up next were Pruko and Harley with 78s - top signees for top programs.

Leamon earned the top rating from Rivals - a 5.8 - and was followed by a signee from a Southland Conference program.

It wasn't national finalist Sam Houston State, either. How about struggling Southeastern Louisiana, which plucked linebacker Juwaan Rogers and his 5.7 rating out of Louisiana. He also gave his commitment on signing day.

Next up with 5.6s each were Harley, wide receivers Dalis Bruce (Eastern Washington) and Tray Rabon (Grambling State), quarterback Lamontiez Ivy (Jackson State), and running backs D.J. Abnar (Liberty), R.J. Robinson (Norfolk State) and Daniel Taylor (Northwestern State).

That's not a bad list of FCS programs, but not necessarily the cream of the national crop, either.

Scout? It gave Matt Barnett the nation's No. 16 rating at fullback and he signed with Wagner. Stud center prospect Austin Stock, No. 24 nationally, has given a verbal commitment to Columbia.

So who knows how the recruiting grades will turn out in the long run.

Maybe a lot of these players will soon be coming to an All-America team near you.

Mlofe NCAA Football Betting News

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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